CLACLS/CNN en Español Report 8: Revisiting the Latino Vote in Florida


NEW YORK, Nov. 2, 2016 — The Graduate Center of the City University of New York’s Center for Latin America, Caribbean and Latino Studies (CLACLS) has issued its eighth Latino report in partnership with CNN en Español  which revisits the Latino vote in Florida, an addendum to an earlier report published in March 2016.
The CLACLS report, Revisiting the Latino Vote in Florida: An Analysis of Voter Registration Data from August 2016 shows that as the 2016 presidential election enters its final month, it is increasingly clear that Florida is in all likelihood the swing state which will determine who will become the next president of the United States. Latinos cast about 17% of all ballots in the reelection of President Obama in 2012 and because of steady demographic growth since then, CLACLS projects that they may comprise 20% of all ballots to be cast in November 2016.
In the report on Florida Latino voters circulated in March 2016, CLACLS analyzed voter registration data issued by the Florida Department of State. At the time that report was published, the most current data was from October 2014. Since then, Florida has published monthly updates on voter registration for each county and the major race/ethnic groups in the state, the most recent dated August 1, 2016.
CLACLS has analyzed these data to determine if the trends indicated by the 2006-2014 data continued to 2016. These may be summarized as follows: Latinos increasingly registered as Democrats throughout the state (38.9% in 2014); as Independents (33% in 2014); and registered Latino Republicans decreased between 2006 and 2014 and were 27.2% of all registered Latino voters in 2014.
Between 2014 and 2016, Latinos registered as Democrats inched up to 38.8% of all registered Latino voters; Independents increased slightly to 33.3%; and those registered as Republicans continued to decline from 27.2% in 2014 to 26.4% in 2016. In 2014, Latinos comprised 14.6% of all registered voters in the state. This increased to 15.4% in August 2016 reflecting the demographic increase of the Latino population of Florida.
One of the main demographic changes taking place in the state among Latinos since 2014 is the arrival of large numbers of Puerto Ricans to central Florida counties. Voter registration data do not indicate the nationality of Latino voters, but evidence from Central Florida suggests that the increase of the area’s Latino population fueled by Puerto Rican arrivals, has led to a rise in Latinos registering to vote at a much higher rate than elsewhere in the state. The number of registered Latino voters in Florida rose by 9.5% between 2014 and 2016. In South Florida they increased by 6.5%. But in Central Florida, Latino registered voters grew by 13.8% and this was in all likelihood related to the influx of Puerto Ricans from the island.
On election night 2016, as returns are posted for Florida, it may be instructive to pay attention to results in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, as well as in the Orlando region of Central Florida, for some indication as to how the state may vote and the important role that Latino voters will play in its outcome.

About the CNN en Español and the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies Partnership:
CNN en Español and the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies (CLACLS) at the Graduate Center, City University of New York (CUNY), have partnered to provide an exclusive focus on Latino voters in America, the fastest growing minority voting bloc that could play an instrumental role in determining the next President of the United States. Through rigorous academic research generated by CLACLS’ Latino Data Project, CNN en Español will broadcast detailed reports about Latinos in the American elections over several multi-media platforms geared toward Spanish-speaking audiences around the world, including 7.4 million U.S. households.
For a copy of the report and the policy brief on Revisiting the Latino Vote in Florida: An Analysis of Voter Registration Data from August 2016, visit the CLACLS Latino Data Project.

Press Contacts:
CNN Communications
Isabel Bucaram, US
305 400 6806
Mariana Pinango, LatAm
404 827 3803
The Graduate Center, CUNY
Tanya Domi
212 817 7283


Submitted on: NOV 2, 2016

Category: Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies | Press Room